e-discovery 2.0

To the casual observer, it is surprising that a small private company (AccessData) could even think of acquiring a larger, public one (Guidance Software). But that’s exactly what AccessData publicly proposed to Guidance’s shareholders on November 6, after Guidance’s board had rejected its offer of $4.50 per share.

Leaving aside the personalities involved, and the history of bitter rivalry between these two companies, it’s easy to see why Guidance’s board rejected the offer. First, it’s only a 19% premium over Guidance’s share price on October 6, the date that the offer was made. Second, given 23 million shares outstanding, AccessData is offering a total price of just over $100 million for a company with $90 million in revenue and about $25 million in cash. Compare that to other e-discovery acquisitions, such as FTI’s $88 million purchase of Attenex or Iron Mountain’s $158 million deal for Stratify, each of which only had about 30% of Guidance’s revenue, and you cannot help feeling that the price is very low. Third, there’s the question of where AccessData will come up with the money. It’s hard to believe they happen to have $100 million in cash lying around and, with the recent market meltdown, debt is much less of an option than it used to be.

Still, this is not necessarily bad news for Guidance Software. Since its IPO in October 2006, the stock has fallen from a high of $17 per share to a low of $2 per share. The public markets are very unforgiving to small software companies. Guidance has recently made some bold moves, announcing usage-based pricing for its e-discovery product and several notable customer wins, but nothing has moved the stock. So an acquisition offer may be just the ticket to boost the share price, especially if it encourages other, more attractive acquirers to throw their hats into the ring.

Stay tuned, this might get interesting.

Yesterday, George Socha and Tom Gelbmann published summary results for their 2008 EDD survey. George and Tom gathered self-reported data from 85 e-discovery service providers and 40 e-discovery software companies. To help vendors resist the temptation to “exaggerate” their accomplishments, they then cross-referenced the responses against independent surveys submitted by 29 law firms and 19 corporations, and applied a healthy dose of their own good judgment. The outcome, which they will publish in-full next month, is a great snapshot of the industry, and probably the most objective ranking of e-discovery vendors that you can find.

By comparing this year’s results to the 2007 survey, you get a sense for how much has changed in the e-discovery world over the past 12 months:

Top E-Discovery Software Companies

Note: arrows show change to rankings from last year’s Socha-Gelbmann Survey

Autonomy and Clearwell move up to the Top 5, overtaking Attenex and CT Summation which slip back to the second tier. There are also 3 new names ranked 6 through 10 (Epiq, iConect and Symantec) who displace Cataphora, Doculex, ISYS, and Oracle, none of whom even make it into the top 15. In other words, 70% of the rankings have changed since last year.

If a litigation support manager were to focus only on the Top 5 in making her e-discovery software decision, she would have a choice of some very different solutions. Autonomy positions itself as a high-end (expensive) platform for corporations, while Lexis offers a comprehensive toolset for law firms. Guidance and Clearwell are complementary in that both provide best-of-breed solutions for parts of the EDRM model: Guidance is the leader in collection and preservation, while Clearwell is the leader in processing, analysis and review. Finally, FTI takes a services-based approach which centers around RingTail, its hosted review application.

Looking lower down the list, there were some other interesting results, primarily around which companies were NOT ranked. Kazeon made it into the third tier (ranked 11-15) whereas StoredIQ, its main competitor, did not. Nor did Recommind break into the rankings, despite making a major push into e-discovery from knowledge management over the past year. But the most striking absentees are PSS Systems and Exterro, which have pioneered litigation hold management for Fortune 100 companies. I can only guess that they cover too much of niche market to warrant inclusion in an industry-wide report.

Top E-Discovery Service Providers

In contrast to the world of software, e-discovery services saw much less movement in this year’s rankings:

Note: arrows show change to rankings from last year’s Socha-Gelbmann Survey

There was only one change to the top 5: Fios moved up, displacing Guidance which plummeted 10-20 places down to a 16-25 ranking. In addition, there were two new players in the top 10, Epiq and Huron, who edged out Electronic Evidence Discovery and Ernst & Young.

Conclusion

Changes to the software rankings reflect broader changes in the e-discovery market. As e-discovery has moved in-house, corporations have become a major driver of purchase decisions that were previously left to law firms. Many software companies, such as Attenex, have struggled to make this transition, while others, such as Clearwell, have capitalized on it. There has been no such change in the service provider world and, as a result, the rankings are relatively stable.

It will be interesting to see what happens next year. Every other software space is dominated by a small number of players, like Oracle for databases or VMWare for virtualization. If the same is true for e-discovery, then we can expect many fewer changes to the software rankings in future surveys as the leaders pull away from the pack.